Fire SuzakuTier 2
at CMB DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 49.1% | -0.5 |
| Fire Suited | 14.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.9% | +3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |